Theory of Change

The SC4CCM Theory of Change (TOC) is the technical framework for our project assessment; it guides our identification of solutions and innovations, monitoring of change, and demonstration of success. The TOC diagrams the pathway of change to the intermediate and ultimate goals, or long term outcomes, of the SC4CCM project (represented in the light blue boxes at the top of the diagram). Described below are the key components that make up the pathway of change. The pathway should be read from the bottom up. Download the full TOC narrative and assumptions

Theory of Change

Download the SC4CCM Theory of Change Model

 View the video Theory of Change: An effective tool for finding community supply chain solutions


These are the building blocks we believe are necessary to achieving the long term outcomes. The preconditions are represented in the boxes below the two ultimate goals and are color coded to represent how each precondition fulfills the essential elements of system performance. The size or position of the precondition box does not indicate the importance or significance of that precondition.


The arrows indicate the sequence that preconditions should be addressed, with a belief that one precondition cannot be fully accomplished until the preconditions before are achieved. This sequence creates the pathway of change.


Interventions are centerpiece to the theory of change as they describe the types of activities required to bring about each precondition on the pathway to change. Country specific interventions will be identified during the baseline assessment based on weak or missing preconditions and indicated on the arrows.


Each precondition is a preliminary outcome with indicators (numbers within each precondition box) that measure the success of interventions adopted to achieve the preconditions.


Assumptions, represented by letters, are the necessary factors for change that are outside the project control. These assumptions demonstrate the limitations to what we can expect to change alone and emphasize the need for collaboration with governments and partners.

SC4CCM used our baseline results to develop country specific TOCs that reflect the specific challenges and interventions being undertaken in each country. These Theories of Change are continuously updated.